21 March 2013

振林山名气斗人气



      
林吉祥南下柔佛州到振林山国会议席出战,被视为可以带动民联争夺这个前线州的一些国州议席,平坦迈入布城之路。但民联自诩要攻下15席的目标,讲讲尚且能自壮声色,有梦最美。以赛马的情况而言,大红可能倒灶。林吉祥曾发动丹绒之役,当年有气吞山河之势,结果功败垂成。他的政治生涯似乎只有荫泽儿子之运,扶了林冠英执政槟城当了首席部长,本身依旧是资深反对党领袖。

林吉祥物色选区有一个特点,就是偏向以华人选民占多数的地区出击。振林山的选民结构符合林吉祥的口味:华裔选民54% 、马来人34% 、印裔12% 。以粗略估计,如果在54% 的华裔选民有80% 投选他,他就稳妥掌握了43.2% 的票源,再由伊斯兰党和公正党拉拢巫印34%12% 的选民约40 %的选票,这18.4% 就凑成至少62% 的胜面。

上一届,时任马华柔佛州妇女组主席曾亚英以8851多数票击败民公正党女候选人查莉哈医生当选。但比起2004年大选,朝野阵营选票差距多达31666张多数票,国阵票源猛挫了70%民联自2008年崛起之后,对此选区可能改观充满信心,这就是佛学中的物无常驻,一切皆流。国阵要捍卫堡垒,必须付出更大的心力。

如果没有改变战略,马华将派遣44岁的张秀福迎战行动党的73岁巨人林吉祥。局外人通常从表面去判断胜败荣辱,多数人一听到名气就不假思索认定林吉祥会把对手打败得落花流水。但这种情况若放在吉隆坡直辖区的武吉敏登、士布爹和焦赖,也许行动党候选人躺着来打也稳操胜券。但在振林山,张秀福虽不是举国皆知的人物,但近年来早有竞选铺垫凝聚乡情和地利的人气,林吉祥过江龙要斗地头蛇,并非易如拾芥。因此,振林山战役,基本上是名气斗人气。

振林山过去20年来已从农业逐步转型为工商社会,当地的发展蓬勃向无阻力而少有民怨。因此,行动党挟着换换换的口号要振林山选民做出改变,等同叫人白米换番薯,未必能打动人心。

林吉祥从政42年当中,先后在马六甲、沙登、八打灵再也、槟城和怡保作战过,鲜少驻扎在一个选区服务,完全凭藉资历和人气建立声威,但间中也有人算不如天算的败北,可见得,一方水土养一方人,不同区域的选民有不同的向心力,并非所有选民都崇拜政治明星。

柔佛州选民历来情钟国阵,会否如民联想像中再以政治海啸般轻易攻城略地,这就要看民心所向和时局变动。柔州与其他州属略有不同之处,政经文教的发展较为畅顺,除了罪案频仍扰乱民心之外,各族之间少有矛盾和磨擦。因此,民联要挑起课题的名目并不多。但是,国阵的隐忧是,该州各城镇有大量的年轻人流入新加坡谋生,对社会种种生态比起老一辈选民自然多了叨念和责怨,这股势力若集中爆发,也许会令国阵伤筋损骨,这也许成为民联的致胜一击。

中国报  放眼江湖  21-3-2013

20 comments:

vinz said...

林老可有去过振林山或柔佛。。。?还有就是因为民族和谐(我不认为柔佛是如此),国阵那套才行不通。不要搞错了。

WSF said...

We welcome Lim Kit Siang contest in Gelang Patah, let Johorian teach him a lesson. We don't want touch n go MP.

陈宇进 said...

林吉 祥真的太嚣张了,他以为华人支持他是理所当然的。中選后又不服务人民,连服务中心也懒的设立,简直把人民当傻瓜,华人也该是时候醒醒了。

Anonymous said...

华人也该是时候醒了。这一届再不行,下一届更加没希望了。要论得票率,国阵早就倒台了!。。亚伯

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